KAZAKHSTAN
A giant at the heart of the Central Asia


V.I.P. INTERVIEWS
MR. A. SHKOLNIK
Interview with
Mr. A. Shkolnik
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan
August 8, 2002

There is no doubt Kazakhstan is extremely rich in natural resources. Could you please elaborate on this richness and the contribution and importance of the gas, oil products and ferrous metals to overall economic growth?

The economic situation in Kazakhstan is favorable right now. During the last three years we observed an increase in GDP. This is mostly due to the growth of the oil and gas sector and, of course, to the increased amount of explored mineral resources. Out of total exports, oil and gas and mineral resources contribute 80%, whereby 40% belongs to the oil and gas, 32% to metallurgy, and 4.5% to mining industry. The annual growth is about 10-12%.
This year we will explore about 45 million tons of oil. By 2010 we are planning to reach the level of 100 million tons of oil per year, which is 2 million barrels per day. Our plans are connected with the exploration of Caspian Sea Shelf. This year we announced the commercial opening of Kashagan oil reserve. Reserves to be explored are about 1 billion tons. I think that this estimate is very conservative. First oil should be explored at the end of 2005. We have a problem regarding the transportation of this oil to the international markets. Last year we launched the production at CPC Pipeline. This year we will transfer 11.5 million tons of oil through this pipeline.
We also have a functioning pipeline between Atyrau and Samara with the capacity of 15 million tons, which operates good. We also use other means of transportation such as railway and sea. After the CPC pipeline reaches its full capacity, it will transfer about 67 million tons of oil. However, according to our estimates, this capacity will not be enough for the full transportation of oil and the deficit will rise in 2008. That is why we are working on several projects right now. One of them is BTC, which means Baku, Tbilisi, and Zhaikhan. The project is successfully developing. We also look for other alternatives. Of course, we have several problems such as the utilization of gas. There are also very strict environmental rules. Besides, it is technologically hard to implement. Anyway, this project is successful.
At the same time with this project, we work on service sector that is services for production of goods in developing oil and gas sector. We began the construction of polyetilen pipeline plant in Atyrau. We already started the production of metal pipelines at Aktau plant.

At last July's IBC Conference in London on Kazakhstan, you indicate the objective of diversification of the oil and gas sector. Could you elaborate more on that?

Many companies work in the oil and gas sector such as Exxon Mobil, Agip, Philips Petroleum, Shell, British Gas, and British Petroleum. Currently, only 10% of explored oil belongs to the state and other 90% is private, which means that the national company KazMunaiGas and the rest by private companies explore about 5 million tons of oil. The system of highway pipelines still belongs to the state as well as one refining plant on the west of the country. I think that this is good because it helped to stimulate the development of oil and gas sector and attract investments. The main problem of oil transportation has been solving well. We signed a long-term agreement with Russian Federation on transportation of oil through its territory.
I would like to highlight to the readers that we have a problem of development of the oil/chemical industry. This is due to huge amount of oil and gas that can be used in the production of chemical goods. Therefore, I would like investor's to turn their attention to this. I believe that it can be a possibility for an investment having in mind that gas should be utilized anyway. There are four methods of gas utilization. The idea of the first method is the re-injection of gas into the storage in order to preserve the pressure of this storage. The next method is the purification and consequent sale of this gas on the market. The third alternative is the use of this gas in the gas turbines in the production of electricity. The last, forth method is for the production of chemical goods. We think that we can further work on this and it is very perspective kind of business.
Recently, the oil and gas giant, KazMunaiGaz, was established. There have been several positive and understanding reactions from energy analysts. What then are your visions and expectations surrounding KazMunaiGas?

The Government formulated the goal that our national company has to become strong. That is why we merged two companies - Kazakh Oil and KazTransGas -. 100% of the shares belong to the state and the company is managed by our Ministry. We had several reasons for doing this. The first was the reduction of administrative costs. The next was the increase of the assets. The third reason was to make this company participating in all future projects on behalf of the state, including the project on shelf. We hope that this company will become famous and explore a lot of oil. Another aim of the company is the development of service sector. KazMunaiGas began to operate and it has already showed good results.

Before we go into the production of copper and other mineral resources, I would like to know more about your ambitions. What do you foresee for the oil and gas sector?

As I mentioned before, we are looking forward to producing 2 million barrels per day in 2010. After that we are expecting to double or triple this figure (and I do hope I am not an optimist in saying this). Today, about 75 -76 million barrels per day are produced and used in the world. There are different expert estimates. One of them states that in 10 years the usage of oil will increase to the level of 105 million barrels per day. We hope that by that time Caspian oil will play noticeable role.

Now, your Ministry also oversees other very important energy sectors in Kazakhstan. Would you, please, highlight the most interesting and eye-catching projects in sectors other then oil and gas sector?

We have project of exploration of copper, ore, zinc, magnesium, lead, and other mineral resources. We are planning to explore 468.000 tons of copper concentrate where 422.000 tons will be pure copper. We also have projects connected with ferro metals, gold, silver, phosphor, chrome and others. These are the main goods that bring revenues to Kazakhstan. Besides, oil and gas, our Ministry is responsible for the production of electricity, chemical industry, geological problems, and the use of natural resources. We are also responsible for aerospace industry (the Baikonur Space Center) as well as for the nuclear activity and uranium industry. In nuclear and uranium questions we work closely with American and Russian colleagues.
You mentioned that you work closely with Americans, Europeans and Russians? How many opportunities do you see for Asian companies to come to Kazakhstan and invest in Kazakh energy and mineral resources?

A Japanese company is already taking part at Kashagan oil exploration project. We are also negotiating with the Indian State Oil Company to participate in Kazakhstan oil exploration. We also work with Chinese colleagues that have 80% of shares at Aktubinsk oil reserve. They work very well.
You have a long experience in the energy sector having had different responsibilities, most notably as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources. What has been your personal challenge in and contribution to the development of the energy sector in Kazakhstan?
The main challenge was to conduct reforms in energy sector, oil and gas as well as electricity sector. 10 years ago everything belonged to the state. We had to create a new legislature and implement privatisation. Only this allowed the development of the energy sector and the attraction of new investments. It was our main challenge and we overcame it. I would like to mention here that the bravest person was our President, Mr. Nazarbaev. He was the one who made it real even though many were against this. The most difficult challenge was to change the mentality of people and we did it. Everything else was the task of technology.

Having in mind that our readers are from the international community, and Asia in particular, do you have the final message?

Talking about Asian readers, I would like to highlight that we are very attentive to the development of energy sector in Asian countries. This market is developing very dynamically. We hope that our resources, such as oil, gas, gold, and uranium, will satisfy demand of Asian countries. I am very positive about the development of atomic energy in Asian countries. We hope that our uranium will be used in atomic electric stations in Asian countries. We will work further in this direction.

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