|
 TOP INTERVIEWS |
2001 was a particularly difficult year for the tourism sector. In 2002, however, every region in the world, except the Caribbean, saw tourism sector growth. How would you explain this development?
World tourism had a good year, last year: it was a nice surprise because we saw a global increase of 3% in the number of arrivals. This is no small figure and demonstrates that tourism is an extremely resistant market. There have been, you will remember, a number of negative factors working against the industry: the economic difficulties of the large tourist producing countries, the 11th of September and the latest terrorists acts in Djerba, Mombassa and Bali. Despite all of that, however, we have seen positive growth.
The region which is suffering most is the Americas, which is dealing with two big handicaps: the weakness of the US tourist market and the reluctance of US citizens to travel in aeroplanes, as well as the economic difficulties of big countries like Argentina, Venezuela and Brazil. Despite all of this, the decrease has only been 0.6%.
These factors mean that, for the first time, South-East Asia has overtaken the Americas as the biggest destination in the world: 130 million arrivals compared to the Americas 120 million.
Within the Americas, the Caribbean is the worst hit area with a decrease of 3%. This is, of course, because the Caribbean countries depend a lot more on the US as a source market for their tourists. We could conclude, therefore, that, once the US economy gets going again and the shock of the 11th of Sept starts to wane in people's minds, the Caribbean economy will start to take off again
It seems that this process has already begun in the cruise industry, which was badly affected during the winter of 2001/2002 by the events of 11th of September 2001. Starting last summer, however, this sector has seen a spectacular rebound. It's the sector of American industry that has recovered most quickly: much quicker than air transport, for example.
Nowadays, tourism is a very important part of the economy in a number of destinations in the Caribbean. Much more important than sugar cane in Cuba or sugar cane and bananas in the French islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique. Tourism is now the dominant industry, along with their inherent weaknesses.
To highlight the rebound of the industry in the region, you have talked about the cruise industry. Do you see a need to diversify the range of products and services offered in this region in order to produce more robust returns?
Absolutely. Many destinations have lived off and are developed solely around traditional beach tourism.
From this point of view, cruises are one aspect of diversification, even if they are not the only one. There are now many destinations where the number of arrivals off cruises has overtaken the number of arrivals off aeroplanes. Naturally, the economic causes and effects are different in each case. The passenger who comes on a cruise liner (which is the case for the grand majority of Americans from the US) relaxes on his boat and the money he spends when he docks in each port is relatively limited.
What's more, there is a very big difference between the islands in the way they attract and benefit from cruise tourism. Some of them, like the English islands, make a very nig profit whereas others, like the French island of Martinique, have not managed to organise themselves and the money spent by visiting tourists is very limited. Martinique has one of the most beautiful bays in the Caribbean: ideal for welcoming cruise liners.
There are also big differences between the cruise companies, which are economically very powerful, and the islands the ships visit, which are sometimes very modest with limited political influence. This means that these islands bargaining power is limited.
We have just published a report on the cruise liner economy with examples taken from the Mediterranean and the Caribbean. There will also take place, in the near future, a conference in Puerto Rico, where we will present the conclusions of this study and work with the Caribbean members of the World Tourism Organisation.
The cruise industry is obviously not the only route to diversification away from the traditional beach tourism that exists in the Caribbean. There is a whole series of more energetic tourism activities, like golf, which complement more traditional holiday options. The benefits of eco-tourism are also starting to provoke interest in certain destinations which have the capacity to support this kind of tourism. We made the most of last year being World International Eco-tourism year to promote this kind of activity.
That aside, I think there is a line of thought that the WTO hopes to contribute to about domestic tourism in that region. The population, as well as the tourists, tend to be concentrated on the periphery, on the edge of the islands. Seaside tourism develops alongside traditional activities like fishing and agriculture. The island's interiors are generally much more traditional. There is therefore potential for development, even if it is of a different nature. That development might rely on the small, independent, family guesthouse, along the lines of a bed-and-breakfast, and support discovery- or eco-tourism. These are perhaps forms of tourism which produce more all round benefits and which will rely heavily on interior economies.
I think the main problem facing these insular destinations is their ecological fragility - the sea and the beaches are small, fragile ecosystems. On top of that, these are destinations where the economy is not very diversified or where there are many leaks in the economic pipeline. Where there is tourist spending, a considerable part of that total leaves the economy, whether as repatriated profits or indirect exports of materials necessary for the running of the hotels.
How to measure the economic impact is an important subject. We are going to begin hosting, sometime in the near future, conferences for Caribbean countries on our satellite tourism account methods and the means of developing more sustainable tourist products which provide more added value to these island economies. That is the base problem that these destinations have to deal with.
You have promoted an ethical tourism code while you have been Secretary General. When you talk of sustainable development, what role could such a code play in helping to develop these countries?
The worldwide ethical tourism code is based on two considerations. The first is that tourism is a complex phenomenon and a major economic activity. We don't yet have the revenue figures for 2002 but, in 2001, tourism generated USD 464 billion and that is only taking international tourism into account, not domestic tourism. In other words, tourists who have spent at least one night in another country have spent USD 464 billion, which is a considerable amount! Depending on the year, this figure could be higher than oil revenues and as important as the revenues from the car industry.
It is not just an economic phenomenon. There are also social, cultural and environmental factors at play. It is a complex phenomenon and a relationship develops between visitors and hosts, which is sometimes a relationship of dependence. The world tourism code seeks to remove some of the complexity from that relationship and take away some of the least satisfactory parts. Tourism has many benefits but, at the same time, it can destructure the host communities, damage the environment and bring with it negative phenomena such as the exploitation of workers and the prostitution of children. It is these negative aspects that the world tourism code seeks to address.
The second aim of the code is to find, within tourism, an acceptable path to necessary liberalisation. The bigger the economic freedom, and by that I mean that it is easy to buy and sell goods, transfer capital, move around and invest, the stronger the tourism sector will become. At the same time, it is important that this liberalisation respects a certain number of basic principles because, if it doesn't, the very nature of the product is affected. That's one of the most fundamental points of the concept of sustainable development.
I think the establishment of the World Tourism Organisation has had a positive effect because our 140 member states have expressed, through the world ethical tourism code, a common vision for their development. Germany, Iran, Canada and India have a common goal, which goes beyond their cultural, religious and lifestyle differences.
This code was also very well received by the UN. The following step was to integrate it into the world ethics code during the conference on sustainable development held in Johannesburg. This earth summit, ten years after the one in Rio de Janeiro, put tourism in its place: the development of tourism is one of the goals of the countries who participated in the summit. This is reflected in paragraph 43 of the action plan adopted by the international conference. This acceptance was received in 2002: international eco-tourism year.
Sustainable tourism is the positive, creative side of tourism. It also represents the way tourism is going to help fight poverty. There are regions of the world which, because of their traditional cultures, their location and their demographic and cultural problems, are not going to develop a big, modern industry or even introduce new technologies. There are not many options as regards diversification to replace traditional agriculture and tourism, in certain cases, is one of the best options for encouraging economic growth, job creation and, consequently, poverty relief.
The figures for 2002 are encouraging, taking into account the events of 2001. Why do we see this progressive growth in tourism and the numbers of visitors?
2001 and 2002 have confirmed what we already knew about tourism. It is at the same time a vulnerable and resistant activity. It is vulnerable to terrorism, war and environmental catastrophes. A prime example is what is happening here in Spain at the moment in Galicia. Of course tourism suffers and sometimes reacts disproportionately to the gravity of the event. It is, however, a very resistant sector. The demand for holidays, leisure, discovery and travel - including business travel - is very strong. So, in a crisis like the 11th of September or the Bali bombings or maybe soon Iraq, the consumer is faced with a dilemma: he wants to travel but at the same time hesitates over his departure because such and such a destination is perhaps unsafe.
This phenomenon produces a number of effects. The trip is often postponed, which explains why, after a large crisis, there is sometimes a larger than normal rebound in the sector. This is what we saw after the 1991 Gulf War, for example. There wasn't a drop, only weak growth, of around 1.5%. The following year, in 1992, we saw a huge explosion, so this phenomenon compensates itself, if you like.
There is also a locations consequence. Tourists are still going to travel but to other destinations. We often see this happening in the Middle East or eastern Mediterranean when there is an increased amount of violence: tourists look to travel to the same type of destination but at the other end of the Mediterranean (Portugal, Spain or Italy) or to the Caribbean. We also see international tourists become domestic tourists.
Yesterday we published figures showing growth that we evaluate at 3%, which represents 715 million international arrivals. This figure does not include internal tourism. We might think that, in a certain number of cases, internal tourism has replaced international trips. The general panorama of tourist activity is, therefore, probably higher than this 3% growth figure. On the other hand, we don't yet have the 2002 profit figures and it is possible that tourists have made their trips but have not spent as much money.
What's more, in a crisis situation, countries and companies compete. They increase the number of special offers to attract clients. Egypt, for example, reduced prices and subsidised charter flights. Thanks to those conditions, this country was able to keep going after a harsh winter season and the summer produced very good results. The financial results, however, probably won't show the same progression as the number of arrivals figures.
Globally, though, it is encouraging that in a difficult, harsh environment, this industry resists relatively well.
How do you see the figures for 2003 turning out? How do you think the sector will develop this year?
If you can tell me when the war in Iraq will start and finish and what form it will take, it will be easier to answer the question. I am not very optimistic despite the rebound that we will inevitably see if there is a conflict in Iraq. These resistance phenomena that I have just described will have a part to play, just like in 1991 and 1992. Nevertheless, the conflict in Iraq, even before it starts, will have negative effects on the tourist industry.
Tourist operators are like every other operator: they fear uncertainty. Look at the situation of the financial markets of countries in uncertain situations. At the end of last year, things got a little bit better but now they have dropped off again. Economic decisions are not taken waiting for the outcome of the general political situation. This is the same for tourist investors and consumers: they hesitate. The indications which we have received from big tour operators on booking levels for the start of 2003 are not good. They are below the norm, below the figures for the same period of 2002.
It is also true that we see another related phenomenon: late booking. Decisions to travel are taken at the last minute so the low indications for the start of 2003 could be due to this late booking trend. I'm not saying that we will definitely see things improve because the situation is worrying.
We will have a clearer idea in March, when the political situation will have evolved and the ITB fair takes place in Berlin. All of the big operators will be present and we will be able to see fairly clearly how the summer season in the northern hemisphere will develop. We are going to organise a meeting of the World Tourism Organisation crisis committee, which will bring together the ministers of the largest countries and the biggest private sector operators in Berlin in the first week of March.
You say in your last report that the economy has a very strong position vis-à-vis the tourist sector. This means that the economic aspect has more importance in the minds of visitors than world geopolitics: an uptake in the global economy could eventually lead to an increase in revenue for the tourist sector.
That's right. In that way, tourism doesn't respect the traditional consumer laws described by famous economists. It's the bad pupil in the class. At university, professors taught us that tourism was, in some ways, a form of residual consumerism, according to the theories of Modigliani or Friedmann.
In times of economic difficulty, increased unemployment, a decrease in growth, even recession, households look after their primary needs: eating, housing and clothing. Other spending, notably spending related to leisure and travel were marginal costs that could be more easily reduced.
I think that analysis is incorrect, at least as far as the middle classes of industrialised western Europe are concerned. For these social groups, tourism and leisure have become an important part of their way of life.
This is accompanied by a decrease in transport costs, notably air transport costs, the generalisation of private vehicles, as well as an increase in free time and a decrease in working hours. It has become, in a way, an essential part of their way of life and standard of living.
That's why, in a crisis, the consumer will not spend as much, will delay his departure, will wait to be more sure of the situation but who might, at the same time, make a second journey in the same year. That will happen if he realises that he has not come through so badly after all and he still has some money left. Consumer trends and the constraints posed by security problems combine to transform the behaviour of tourists but don't remove their desire to travel.
Obviously, the general climate plays a role and, if growth increases, if the financial markets take off again, people will re-evaluate their household spending and a part of that money will be spent on tourism.
However, even in the most difficult of situations, tourism plays a kind of stabilising role in the economy: something that hasn't perhaps been noticed up until now. This phenomenon explains why, even combining the dramatic events of 2001 and 2002 in the big tourist producing countries, the development of the sector hasn't been excessively affected. The US economy slowed down in 2001, the German economy has seen real economic difficulty and Japan is experiencing its third or fourth year of stagnation. These are the three principal producers of tourists and it's a very delicate situation when those three markets are experiencing difficulties at the same time. On top of that, the events of 11th September, safety fears and a fear of flying have had an effect. Despite all of that, we have seen only a decrease of 0.5% in the number of arrivals in 2001 and 3% growth in 2002. Arrivals are not the same as revenues but it shows the sector is resisting even so.
Let's talk more specifically about the Caribbean. What type of activities could be developed to regain the market share lost last year?
We have found that one of the reasons why 2002 turned out so well is that economists and politicians have done their jobs relatively well. They have co-operated and taken sound economic decisions. The WTO re-launch committee has acted in an exemplary manner in this respect by bringing together political and economic decision makers.
One way of regaining market share is to promote public-private co-operation, especially important in the tourist sector. In the last few years, following neo-liberalist trends, there has been an atmosphere that favours less state participation in the tourist sector which, by definition, must live off private initiative. Private investment and initiative are the engines that drive this sector. To succeed, however, a favourable business environment is essential. I'm referring to this environment in its broadest sense: administrative procedures, border controls, security, infrastructures, training methods, consumer protection and the possibility of repatriating profits. A physical environment but also a sound legal and regulatory one.
To make this happen, a real process of dialogue is necessary between the public powers, the private sector and, often, local authorities as these are more and more considered privileged players in big countries. In the US and Belgium, for example, there is no longer any federal tourism administration - which in some instances is to be regretted. The responsibilities are shared out at local level.
You might know, for example, that certain countries in North America, Canada and Mexico, responded better to the post September 11th crisis thanks to the co-operation that exists between a limited but solid central administration, the regions, or federation states in the case of Mexico, and the private sector. In the US there were more difficulties because there is a strong central aviation administration but, since 1995, there hasn't been one for tourism.
I think that one of the keys to a good reaction is maintaining a certain lobbying capacity at government level and putting in place structures for co-operation and promotion between the private sector, local authorities and central governments.
What importance do you place on promotional activities like fairs?
We have examples that have been analysed by the WTO. In times of difficulty, governments in crisis situations cut public spending. Now, we must realise that this is precisely what should not be done. Those are the moments to invest in promotion which, however, is difficult, because the governments don't have the means to do so.
This is what Thailand managed to do in 1997-98, right of the middle of the Asian financial crisis that had started with the fall of the Bangkok stock market and the fall in value of the Thai Baht. By launching its 'Amazing Thailand' campaign, the country developed, just when other countries in the region were becoming more protective, and imposed itself on the market.
More recently, Malaysia played the same game of chance and made the appropriate financial moves. Mexico has launched important ad campaigns in the US. Fewer US citizens have visited Mexico but they will see their revenues rise by 5% in 2002, amazing considering the context of the moment. Mexico is, naturally, very dependent on the US market.
Knowing how to use promotion techniques is therefore very important. Knowing how to use new technologies is also crucial. They often allow emerging destinations to contact directly with consumers at a much lower cost. The WTO has invested a lot in new technologies and tourism and the internet, not to favour big business but in favour of small and medium destinations that are not as developed as they might be. This technology can at least support traditional methods like fairs, brochures, familiarisation visits and overseas promotion offices, which are relatively expensive.
Yesterday, I took part in the presentation of the Spanish government's website.
What would the Secretary General of the World Tourism Organisation like to say to potential tourists in order to encourage them to travel more in the coming years?
The world in which we live in is uncertain and dangerous. However, it is sometimes more dangerous to stay where you are than to move. What's more, by being afraid of what might happen, we encourage those who commit terrorist acts.
I believe that governments have now understood the size of the problem, that in the majority of destinations considerable efforts have been made to increase the safety and security of air travel, that it is indeed time to start travelling again. At the same time, we will satisfy our own curiosity and our desire to relax.
I further believe that we contribute to a more balanced world by travelling. Tourism is one of the areas where developing nations, the poorest countries, can beat rich countries. The balance of payments comes out in favour of developing countries. I believe it represents a chance for them to develop.
I hope that 2003 will not be too disturbed by the coming troubles. A crisis is never good for tourism. I hope that, once again, tourism will demonstrate its capacity to resist and bring wealth to those populations and workers who are so in need of it.
Thank you very much.
Note: WINNE cannot be held responsible for the content of unedited transcriptions.
|
|
| | | | |
| |
|
