Political
Structure |
Ecuador has been a presidential democracy since
1979, but its institutions are fragile. Economic
deterioration in the past decade has contributed
to increased political instability. Lucio Gutierrez,
who is backed by left-wing and indigenous organisations,
was inaugurated as president on January 15th 2003,
taking over from the outgoing Gustavo Noboa.
The country has a fragmented and polarised political
system with numerous parties. Constitutional reform
in 1998 abolished mid-term congressional elections
and deprived the legislature of the power to impeach
cabinet members, but more reform is needed to
improve governability. The undisciplined and opportunistic
nature of Congress will remain a threat to economic
reform.
1. The executive
Lucio Gutierrez handily won Ecuador's presidential
runoff on November 24th. Running on a platform
that promised a crusade against corruption and
more attention to the needs of the poor, he is
another in a string of "outsiders" who
has gained political prominence in Latin American
elections. The president, elected for a four-year
term, appoints the cabinet and provincial governors.
Mr Gutierrez took over in January 2003 from Gustavo
Noboa, who assumed the presidency when Jamil Mahuad
was ousted in a coup (led by Mr Gutierrez) in
January 2000.

OVERVIEW
Following the break-up of the ruling coalition,
the Partido Sociedad Patriotica 21 de Enero (PSP,
the party of the president, Lucio Gutierrez),
will have to construct pragmatic alliances with
the main parties in Congress, which mostly distrust
Mr Gutierrez. The government is under pressure
to pass reforms to which it has committed under
the IMF stand-by agreement that was signed in
March, or risk the suspension of the accord. The
government will target overall non-financial public-sector
surpluses in 2003-04. Growth will be modest in
2003, before higher oil output in 2004 leads to
slightly stronger expansion of overall GDP. Additional
government revenue from a new oil pipeline will
be used primarily for buying back external debt.
Inflation will fall gradually, with a possibility
of deflation in some tradeable sectors. The current-account
balance will stay in deficit, but will be funded
largely by foreign direct investment in the oil
industry.
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Mr Gutierrez has dismissed the indigenous party,
the Movimiento Unidad Plurinacional Pachakutik-Nuevo
Pais (MUPP-PP, or Pachakutik) from his government
after months of escalating tensions. He will seek
a new alliance, probably with the conservative
party, the Partido Social Cristiano (PSC). One
of the alliance's immediate aims may be to re-establish
political control over the Supreme Court, rather
than speed the passage of economic reforms.
2. National legislature
Unicameral Chamber of Representatives (Congress).
100 members are elected provincially by proportional
representation, from open slates and for a four-year
period, at the same time as the first round of
the presidential election. Voting is compulsory
for all citizens between the ages of 18 and 65
and optional for illiterates and persons over
65.
Composition
of Congress 2003
3. Legal system
Congress selected a new Supreme Court with life
tenure in October 1997 from nomination lists presented
by electoral colleges and civic groups. The 32-member
Supreme Court renews its membership with judges
of its own choosing. The Court appoints a new
Chief Justice every two years, and last did so
in January 2002. Constitutional review powers
are in the hands of a different court: the Supreme
Constitutional Court, whose nine members are appointed
by Congress and represent political parties according
to their weight in the legislature.
4. National elections
General elections were held on October 20th 2002
and a second round was held on November 24th.
The next presidential and congressional elections
are due to take place on October 15th 2006. Provincial
governors, directly elected provincial representatives
and local councillors will be elected in May 2004.
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Main
Political Organisations |
Partido Social Cristiano (PSC); Izquierda Democratica
(ID); Partido Roldosista Ecuatoriano (PRE); Partido
Renovador Institucional Accion Nacional (PRIAN);
Movimiento Pachakutik-Nuevo Pais (MP-NP); Partido
Sociedad Patriotica (PSP); Movimiento Popular
Democratico (MPD); Democracia Popular (DP); Partido
Socialista (PS); and Alfarismo Nacional (AN).
Outside Congress: Confederacion de Nacionalidades
Indigenas del Ecuador (Conaie)
The PSC was founded in the 1950s in Quito by a
group of upper-middle-class Roman Catholics, but
quickly developed a stronghold in the coastal
area around Guayaquil. The reformist agenda espoused
by the party in the past, as in 1996 when Jaime
Nebot ran for president, has been superseded by
stronger regionalist and clientelistic considerations.
The elderly former president (1984-88) and former
mayor of Guayaquil, Leon Febres Cordero, continues
to be a powerful influence in the party, but lacks
an obvious successor. His protege and former PSC
congressional leader, Mr Nebot, became the mayor
of Guayaquil in 2000 when Mr Febres Cordero decided
to stand down on grounds of poor health.
The ID, founded in 1970, has a moderate reformist
wing and a more radical element. Presided over
by the former president Rodrigo Borja (1988-92),
the ID tends to favour higher taxes for the wealthy,
and to oppose public-sector job losses and privatisation.
The ID-controlled administration in Pichincha
(the province surrounding Quito) blocked the privatisation
of the regional electricity distributor in 2002.
The populist PRE was founded in memory of the
former president Jaime Roldos, who was killed
in a plane crash in 1981. Support for the party
is strongest on the coast, where it vies with
the PSC for dominance, and in marginal urban and
rural areas. The party was discredited by the
brief presidency of Mr Bucaram in 1996-97, although
subsequent revelations of corruption under the
Mahuad regime have had the effect of making Mr
Bucaram's sins appear less egregious. The party
remains obsessed by the prospect of Mr Bucaram's
rehabilitation and return from exile, and appears
to have little interest in serious policymaking.
A major role in the 2003 Congress will be played
by the populist PRIAN, that has only recently
come into existence. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal
(TSE) granted Alvaro Noboa (no relation to Gutavo
Noboa) a franchise to establish his own personal
political party-his main support in his failed
bid for the 2002 presidency. Mr Noboa also lost
narrowly to Mr Mahuad in 1998.
The Movimiento Pachakutik is the descendant of
the umbrella group of indigenous organisations,
social movements and trade unions formed in 1996
that achieved immediate electoral success, winning
several seats in Congress. Pachakutik rejects
privatisation and opposes dollarisation on ideological
grounds. Its main concern is to achieve a greater
share of the budget for welfare and projects aimed
at helping indigenous groups and minorities. It
remains the principal congressional vehicle for
indigenous groups represented in Conaie, the Confederation
of Ecuadorean Indigenous Nationalities. This grass-roots
movement, which demonstrated its power in the
January 2000 coup, continues to lobby the government
from outside Congress, using the threat of a return
to mass protest as leverage. The group's membership
is divided over the extent to which it should
become involved in electoral politics, and disputes
between highland indigenous groups and the Amazonian
minority have weakened it. It formed an alliance
with Nuevo Pais, a like-minded populist party.
The military plays an important political role
behind the scenes, especially in times of political
instability. It has frequently been called upon
to act as a broker to resolve problems triggered
by severe labour unrest or deadlock between the
president and Congress. In February 1997 it played
a major role in negotiating the agreement that
brought a swift end to the constitutional crisis
that followed the ousting of Mr Bucaram. Most
people believe that the military is much less
corrupt than civilian politicians, business or
the unions, although this image has been dented
by recent scandals. The military also commands
deep respect among the population owing to its
role in providing education, infrastructure and
healthcare facilities in marginal rural communities,
especially in the Amazon region, during the years
of military rule. However, the military's role
as a guarantor of stability was compromised by
its involvement in the January 2000 quasi-coup.
Soldiers, like the civilian population, were aggrieved
at the mismanagement and corruption scandals of
the 1990s, and some had become sympathetic to
radical indigenous movements. Many officers who
supported the coup have since been removed. The
army will remain powerful, and will use the threat
of incursions from Colombia to press for increases
in its budget.
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